In an era of growing geopolitical tension and shifting strategic influence, investment in dual-use infrastructure is no longer a buzzword — it’s a necessity. For the countries of the Three Seas region, the priority now is to combine economic objectives with the imperative of security. This article introduces the idea of a “4× return” — a framework for understanding how dual-use infrastructure can drive both strategic and economic synergy.
1. What is dual-use infrastructure and why is it crucial today?
Dual-use infrastructure refers to projects that serve both civilian purposes (transport, energy, digital networks, logistics) and defense needs (military mobility, system resilience, strategic communications). Examples include:
- Transport corridors (Via Carpathia, Rail2Sea) — roads and railways designed for potential military use and fast allied mobility.
- Telecommunication networks / digital highways — built with redundancy, prioritization capabilities, and resistance to disruption.
- Energy infrastructure — transmission grids, energy storage, and microgrids capable of sustaining critical systems during crises.
- Data centers and ICT hubs — ready to be integrated into command or cyber-defense systems.
Why now? Because geopolitics has become more complex: the NATO eastern flank is a potential crisis theater, and civilian infrastructure itself faces hybrid attacks, sabotage, and coercion. Hence the urgent need for resilience and adaptability.
As Florian Krampe (SIPRI) notes: European defense modernization cannot ignore climate risks — “climate dual-use,” i.e. technologies that serve both adaptation and defense purposes, is becoming part of the security agenda.
2. The “4× Return” Framework
The “4× return” concept refers to four dimensions where dual-use investments create a multiplier effect:
| Dimension | What We Gain | References |
|---|---|---|
| Security / Strategic Resilience | Faster allied mobility, ability to operate under strategic pressure, redundancy of critical systems | EU “Military Mobility” plans emphasize dual-use as a funding condition. |
| Mobility / Supply Chains | Shorter transit times, route diversification, bypassing vulnerable chokepoints | GLOBSEC analyses show dual-use projects enhance mobility on NATO’s eastern flank. |
| Economic Growth / Regional Development | Attracting investment, job creation, developing local tech ecosystems | “Dual-use” is now a pillar of Europe’s competitiveness paradigm (Publyon). |
| Innovation / Technological Sovereignty | Development of hybrid technologies, reduced dependency on foreign components, attraction of dual-use startups | EUISS “When Stars Align” highlights dual-use R&D in defense budgets. |
When all these factors interact, the result is a multidimensional return — not only financial, but also strategic, technological, and systemic.
3. Examples from the 3SI Region and the EU
- Via Carpathia and Rail2Sea — featured in 3SI Forum documents as dual-use corridors crucial for both civilian and military logistics.
- Three Seas Defense Innovation Hub — proposed by the Atlantic Council to pool risk and capital for dual-use projects.
- EU / NATO initiatives — the EU’s “Military Mobility” framework requires dual-use features for financing eligibility; NATO’s DIANA program accelerates dual-use tech (energy, underwater sensors, secure comms).
4. A Window of Opportunity — Why Now?
This may be the most promising “historic window” for the Three Seas region in years:
- Defense budgets across the EU now include dual-use components.
- Financial institutions are adapting: the European Investment Bank has relaxed lending rules to fund defense-related infrastructure.
- Hybrid warfare, sabotage, and undersea attacks have underscored the need for infrastructure protection.
- The green transition demands adaptive infrastructure — a bridge between sustainability and security.
The Three Seas region can thus position itself not just as a connectivity zone, but as a strategic hub of resilience and innovation.
5. Challenges, Risks, and Preconditions for Success
Dual-use is not without challenges:
- Definition and classification — unclear criteria may lead to misuse or bureaucratic delays.
- Financing and risk — higher costs and longer planning cycles deter private investors.
- Cross-sector coordination — infrastructure, technology, and defense communities must cooperate.
- Export controls — dual-use tech often falls under strict export regimes, requiring harmonized standards.
- Overstretching the concept — labeling every large project “dual-use” risks diluting strategic value.
6. Call to Action — Recommendations for the Three Seas Region
- Establish a Three Seas Defense Innovation Hub — a regional platform aggregating dual-use projects, startups, research, and funding.
- Focus on Priority Corridors — integrate military and digital components into Via Carpathia, Rail2Sea, and energy links.
- Blend Financing Models — public–private co-funding, guarantees, 3SI Fund allocations, and EU defense instruments.
- Regulatory Harmonization — simplify dual-use classifications, procurement, and export coordination.
- Communication Strategy — promote dual-use as “security, efficiency, growth,” not “militarization.”
- Measure Strategic ROI — track outcomes in mobility, resilience, and innovation to validate impact.
